Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market

Why Trying to Time the Market Is a Terrible Idea

When it comes to real estate, one of the most common questions we get is: “Is now a good time to buy?” It’s a fair question — and one that naturally bumps up against the self-interest of any real estate agent. Of course, we might say “yes,” but let’s break down why trying to time the market isn’t the right focus — and why time in the market is what really matters.

The Power of Appreciation

In 2024, home prices across the U.S. appreciated by 5.25%. That’s a solid increase, especially when you consider the power of leverage. If you put 20% down on a home, that 5.25% rise in value doesn’t just grow your investment by 5.25% — it grows your down payment by over 21%. That’s a return that would make many investors envious — and all while owning a tangible, livable asset.

Now let’s contrast that with renting:
If you spent $2,000/month on rent in 2024, you’re out $24,000 — money that’s gone forever, with zero return.

So, instead of gaining $21,000 in equity, you’ve lost $24,000. That’s a $45,000 swing in just one year.

Looking Ahead: 2025 and Beyond

According to the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey, experts anticipate 4% annual appreciation through at least 2029. That might not sound like much, but let’s do the math:

• If you buy a $400,000 home in 2025, and appreciation hits that 4% mark annually…

• In 5 years, your home’s value would increase by approximately $83,000.

• That doesn’t even include the additional equity you’d build by paying down your mortgage.

Now compare that to renting at $2,000/month for those same five years:
You’d spend $120,000, with nothing to show for it.

So instead of gaining $83,000, you’ve lost $120,000 — a difference of more than $200,000 over five years.

The Bottom Line

No one can perfectly predict the market — not you, not me, not even the experts. But what we do know is that the market has historically rewarded those who get in and stay in.

So instead of asking “When is the perfect time to buy?”
Ask yourself, “Where do I want to be in 5 years?”

Chances are, owning a home will put you in a far stronger financial position than waiting on the sidelines.

Time in the market beats timing the market — every time.

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Thanks for reading! I'm Bill Stevenson from Spotlight Realty. If you're thinking about buying, selling, or just want to understand your options, let’s talk.